Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
