China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.
This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.
“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.
China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.
That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.
China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.
An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.
On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.
Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.
Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.
Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.
China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.
On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.
Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.
Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.
Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.
Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.
“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”
The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.
Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.
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