Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.
In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.
Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.
Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.
The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.
In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!
Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls just short here.
Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.
What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.
Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.
After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.
Still
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